Vietnam to continue exploiting farm produce exports in 2011

Experts believe that the progress in farm produce exports in 2010 will continue in 2011, especially when the world market is showing good signs for seafood, coffee and rubber products. However, they think that the rice exports may decrease.

The forecasts are from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD) latest report on the farm produce market and Vietnam’s key export items in 2011.

Quoting the forecasts of the US Department of Agriculture (USDA),global rice consumption in 2010-2011 will increase by 420,000 tons, reaching 453 million tons. Meanwhile, the global rice trade in 2011 is expected to reach 30.3 million tons, an increase of one percent over the last year.

Vietnam hopes to put out 39.75 million tons of rice this year from the 7.548 million hectares of rice fields. After analyzing the world’s demand and Vietnam’s rice supply capacity, MARD thinks that Vietnam will export 5.5-6.1 million tons of rice in 2011. If this scenario comes true, Vietnam’s rice export volume in 2011 will be 10-15 percent lower in comparison with 2010 (6.8 million tons). The exact volume of exported rice will be decided after considering national food security and changes from import markets.

As for seafood products, despite the anti-dumping lawsuits and non-tariff barriers installed for Vietnamese seafood exports, MARD still believes that seafood products will have high growth rates in 2011.

The ministry has predicted that the seafood export turnover in 2011 will reach 5.5 billion dollar, 500 million dollar higher than in 2010.

As for coffee, the recent forecasts by the International Coffee Organization said that the global coffee output in the 2010-2011 crop reached 133 million bags. USDA also thinks that the global inventory of the 2010-2011 crop will be 4.9 million bags less than the previous crop. The total consumption of the 2010-2011 crop’s coffee may reach 131.03 million bags, down by 5.564 bags.

Nevertheless, Vietnam’s coffee production is expected to recover this year. According to MARD, the coffee growing area of the 2010-2011 crop of Vietnam is estimated to reach 548.2 thousands hectares, 1.8 percent more than the previous crop. The coffee output is expected to rise 4.6 percent to 1,105.7 thousand tons.

MARD has predicted that Vietnam’s coffee production in 2011 willbe 1.28 million tons, which can generate an export turnover of two billion dollars. In 2010, Vietnam exported 1173 thousands tons and earned 1.763 billion dollars.

The optimistic forecasts for rubber exports in 2011 may create a driving force for the expansion of the rubber harvesting areas in the world. The fact that the rubber price increased by two folds in 2010 has prompted people to grow rubber.

The Indian Rubber Committee has predicted that the country’s rubber growing area may reach 14,000 hectares in 2011, raising the rubber output by 5.3 percent in comparison with 2010 to 890 thousand tons. Chinese rubber output is also forecasted to increase 6.6 percent to 690 thousand tons in 2011, a direct reflection of an increase of 19,000 hectares of rubber harvesting areas.

Meanwhile, according to the General Statistics Office, in 2011, Vietnam’s rubber output may increase by four percent to 780 thousands tons with the growing area having increased by 5000 hectares.

MARD thinks that Vietnam’s rubber exports in 2011 may reach 760,000 tons to generate three billion dollars (the figures were 783,000 tons and 2.38 billion dollar).

Pepper producers believe that they will have a prosperous year thanks to the increasing demand and limited supply. The total output in the world in 2011 is believed to be 310,000 tons, 6.5 thousand tons, or 2 percent lower in comparison to 2010. Providing 44.2 percent of the total supply, Vietnam will continue leading the world as the largest pepper exporter.

The Vietnam Pepper Association thinks that Vietnam will have 100,000 tons of pepper in 2011, while it will export 115,000 tons

(Source: http://english.vietnamnet.vn/en/business/4098/vietnam-to-continue-exploiting-farm-produce-exports-in-2011.html)