Pepper surges ahead, chana firm

India Pepper futures surged ahead by 10% on global tight supplies on restricted supplies from growing regions while pulses prices marginally fell despite the marriage season demand and arrival delays due to adverse weather conditions. Rubber prices stayed firm on supply concerns and automobile sector growth in emerging nations.
COMMODITY ANALYSIS
Pepper
Pepper futures surged ahead this week on slack supply in the physical market, depleting domestic stocks and lower availability with major producing countries. Market analysts said low stocks in the market due to restricted supply from the producing regions mainly influenced the pepper prices at the futures trade.
Arrivals from the fresh crop has started coming in the spot markets of Kerala but in very small quantities. Traders expect the arrivals to pick up slowly.
On Friday, Kochi spot market pepper gained 89 rupees to end at 22,944 rupees per 100 kg. According to an overseas report from the US today, Muntok white pepper market moved up quite a bit while black pepper was more or less unchanged.
In futures market at NCDEX Pepper February contract opened this week at Rs.22877 and closed higher by 10.87 at Rs 25366 while March contract rose by 11.05% from Rs.23100 to Rs 25653.
India has slipped to the fourth position in the world pepper export market due to decline in the production since the past few years. In the international pepper markets too output is expected to decline this year. Black pepper production in Vietnam, the largest pepper producer, is likely to be lower by around 9 percent at 1 lakh tones as compared to 1.10 lakh tonnes in the previous year.
Chana
Chana futures received support this week on firm prices of its substitutes such as tur, urad and moong and lower arrivals. However towards weekend prices dipped in National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange on expected gain in arrivals in spot markets.
Production of chana, or chickpea, is likely to fall to 7.37 million tonnes from 7.48 million tonnes a year ago, the farm ministry said in a statement. Pigeon peas prices have risen sharply in the past one month as traders were forecasting lower output due to adverse weather. Though rising arrivals in the domestic market kept the upside limited, analysts said. Arrivals trickle in during February and peak in March.
On Friday in the key spot market in Delhi, spot prices fell 16.75 rupees to be at 2,668.90 rupees per 100 kg.
NCDEX February delivery contract opened at Rs 2651 and closed at Rs 2647, marginally down by 0.15% whereas Chana March contract opened at Rs.2750 and ended at Rs.2734, down by 0.58% and market is supported by marriage season demand and arrival delays due to adverse weather.
Chana acreage as on Jan 28, 2011 has increased by 11.8% to 95.12 lakh hectares (lh) as compared to 85.55 lh the same period previous year. Despite of increase in acreage under Chana, the production has declined compared to the previous year due to untimely rains in the month of October and November.
Rubber
Rubber prices recovered at the end of the week due to firm demand in the physical market and on short covering. In global market also rubber futures extended gains due to lower supply of commodity in the market.
In global market, the Malaysian rubber market is expected to extend its gain into next week on the back of strong demand and thin supply. A dealer said the dry weather cut supply in producing countries, leading to a tight supply condition globally. The dealer said the wintering season would also continue to support the commodity price to increase.
At NMCE, February contract fell by 0.01% % to Rs 23423 while March contract declined by 0.81% to 23954 per quintal. Spot rates of rubber on Friday were (Rs/kg): Spot rates were (Rs/kg): RSS-4: 236; RSS-5: 226; ungraded: 221; ISNR 20: 232 and latex 60 per cent: 149.
There are some reports that global demand for natural and synthetic rubber will enhance by about 40 per cent to 33.9 million tonnes in 2020 driven by consumption in India and China. Output from Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia has been cut as a La Nina weather event caused higher-than-average rains in parts of Southeast Asia.
Soybean
Soybean futures weakened on rising rapeseed output although upbeat sentiments prevailed in CBOT.Firm domestic market and rising oilmeal exports gave support to soybean complex. Soybean climbed midweek on a sharp rise in oil meal exports in January and firmness in the U.S. soy market.
In the Indore spot market on Friday soyoil was down 1.05 rupees at 640 rupees per 10 kg, while soybean lost 13 rupees to be at 2,466 rupees per 100 kg. At Sri Ganganagar spot market in Rajasthan price eased by a rupee to 2,786 rupees per 100 kg.
In futures market, NCDEX February soybean prices fell from Rs.2518.50 to Rs 2467, a fall of 2.02% while March Soybean prices settled down by 1.4% from Rs 2562 to Rs.2526. Feb soyoil prices fell from Rs 657.45 to Rs 643.55 after hitting a high of 659. March soyoil fell from Rs 673.05 to Rs 664.55 after hitting a high of 674.90
India's oilmeal exports rose 67 percent in January from a year ago, the seventh straight monthly rise, on good demand from buyers in Japan, Vietnam, South Korea and the European Union, data from a leading trade body showed.
India's rapeseed output could jump 16.1 percent in 2011 to 6.85 million tonnes, helped by favourable weather conditions, a leading trade body said on Saturday.

(Source: http://www.commodityonline.com/news/Commodity-Trends-Pepper-surges-ahead-chana-firm-36427-3-1.html)