Commodity Trends:Soybean, Pepper, Chana prices move up

Agri-commodities generally witnessed an upward trend with US corn surging to its highest level since July 2008 while pepper prices in India strengthened on tight global stocks but weakening export demand limited upside gains. Chana prices were well supported in Indian markets by rising prices of its substitutes and marriage season demand. 
Soybean futures for March delivery fell 2 cents, or 0.1 percent, to $14.335 a bushel on Friday. Still, prices added 2.5 percent this week, the first gain in three weeks, Bloomberg reported. 
COMMODITY ANALYSIS 
Pepper 
Pepper futures gained on tight supply concerns and International Pepper Community forecast regarding falling output in 2011 globally. However, Pepper futures in India dropped at the end of the week on the back of subdued export demand and on rising supply from the fresh crop. Arrivals from the fresh crop have started coming in the spot markets of Kerala in small quantity and are expected to pick up gradually. 
But pepper  futures gained in the midweek due to limited stocks and tight supply. On Friday, in Kochi spot market, pepper gained 111 rupees to end at 22,445 rupees per 100 kg. 
According to the International Pepper Community, world pepper output this year will also fall by nearly 9,000 tonnes against 2009 to 2, 79,650 tonnes due to unfavorable weather conditions and pests. The consumption demand is estimated at 3, 20,000 tonnes. In futures market at NCDEX Pepper February contract opened this week at Rs.22270 and closed higher by 2.62% at Rs 22854 after hitting a high of 22977 while March contract rose by 2.05% from Rs.22630 to Rs 23094 after hitting a high of Rs.23300.
Chana 
Chana futures witnessed mixed trend with marriage season demand and rising prices of substitutes like tur and urad supportive while expectations on rising fresh arrivals in the market trimmed gains. 
Pigeon peas prices have risen sharply in the past one month as traders were forecasting lower output due to adverse weather. 
On Friday, in the key spot market in Delhi, spot prices rose 3 rupees to be at 2,639 rupees per 100 kg. Demand from the local stockists for Chana has improved after prices declined in the beginning of this week. 
For 2010-2011, the government has set the Chana production target at 75.8 lakh tonnes, nearly 3% more than the 2009-10 production of 73.6 lakh tone, however, there are concerns now whether this target can be met with reports of extensive crop damages in chief growing regions. 
NCDEX February delivery contract opened at Rs 2634 and closed at Rs 2649, marginally up by 0.56% whereas Chana March contract opened at Rs.2650 and ended at Rs.2739, up by 3.35% and market is supported by marriage season demand and arrival delays due to adverse weather. 
Rubber 
Rubber futures  in India recovered tracking firm global market and on short covering. In global market also rubber futures rose on tight supply concerns. 
On Friday, the July-delivery contract climbed as much as 2.9 percent to a record 504 yen a kilogram ($6,178 a metric ton) on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange. The most-active contract surged 7.2 percent this week, the largest advance in 13 weeks. 
Natural-rubber consumption in China may rise 9 percent to 3.6 million tons this year and India’s consumption may gain 5.2 percent to 991,000 tons, according to the Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries. 
At NMCE, February contract rose by 5.18% % to Rs 23563 while March contract up by 4.74% to 24038 per quintal. Spot rates of rubber on Friday were (Rs/kg): Spot rates were RSS-4: 238; RSS-5: 227; ungraded: 223; ISNR 20: 230 and latex 60 per cent: 152. 
Global consumption may gain to 11.2 million metric tons in 2011 and 11.6 million tons next year, said, the group’s secretary general. The supply deficit will support prices of the commodity used to make tires and gloves, he said. 
Soybean 
Soybeans showed positive trends in global and Indian markets thanks to increased demand, estimates of supply fall in 2011 and rising oil meal exports from India. Towardsweekend soybean futures rose on the back of firm domestic demand. In global markets soybean declined on Friday with Soybean futures for March delivery fallingl 2 cents, or 0.1 percent, to $14.335 a bushel at CBOT. Still, prices added 2.5 percent this week, the first gain in three weeks. 
On Friday, in the Indore spot market, soyoil was down 5.4 rupees at 643.45 rupees per 10 kg, while soybean fell by 23 rupees to 2,472 rupees per 100 kg. 
In futures market, NCDEX February soybean prices rose from Rs.2455 to Rs 2513, up by 2.36 per cent while March Soybean  prices settled higher by 2.48% from Rs 2497 to Rs.2559 after hitting a high of 2600. Feb soyoil prices rose marginally from Rs 656 to Rs 658 after hitting a high of 669 while March futures rose from Rs 664 to 673.50 after hitting a high of 682. 
India's oil meal export jumped 94 percent in December from a year earlier, its sixth straight monthly rise, on robust demand from traditional buyers in Japan, Vietnam and Indonesia, data from a leading trade body showed. 
As per Agricultural Consultancy Celeres, South America's soybean production estimates for 2010-11 was lower to 125.3 million metric tons, down 6.3% as compared to last year mainly due to sharp decline of Argentina’s soybean production estimates as dry weather concerns.

Major Indices	Closing Data for Friday, 04th February 2011	Percentage Change
Dow Jones	12092.15	1.65
MCX COMDEX	3377.16	2.64
BSE Sensex	18,008.15	-1.21
NSE	5,395.75	-0.39
Continuous Commodity Index (CCI)	654.02	0.45
Reuters Jeffrey/CRB Index	338.92	0.73

Precious Metals 
Gold prices fell this week on speculation that an economic recovery will curb demand for the metal as an alternative investment. Gold ticked lower on Friday as investors took to the sidelines ahead of U.S. January non-farm payroll data, which could dent bullion's appeal. 
On Friday, Gold futures for April delivery fell $4, or 0.3 percent, to settle at $1,349 an ounce at 1:15 p.m. on the Comex in New York. This week, the price rose 0.5 percent. 
Among other metals, Silver futures for March delivery gained 33.1 cents, or 1.2 percent, to $29.059 an ounce. The metal rose 4.1 percent this week. 
Palladium futures for March delivery fell $4.10, or 0.5 percent, to $816.45 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange. 
Platinum for April delivery advanced $1.70 to $1,845.80 an ounce. The price rose 2.3 percent this week. 
In Indian market, MCX February Gold Futures opened in the week at Rs.19950 and closed at Rs.19970, up by 0.1%, whereas April contract is up by 0.23% % to Rs.202707 per 10 Grms. MCX Silver March rose by 3.11% to Rs 44516 after hitting a high of 44774. 
Crude Oil 
In global markets, Crude oil fell after a government report showed that the U.S. added fewer jobs in January than economists forecast, bolstering concern that fuel demand will slip in the world’s biggest oil-consuming country. 
On Friday, Crude oil for March delivery declined $1.51 to settle at $89.03 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices are down 0.3 percent this week. 
Brent crude for March settlement fell $1.93, or 1.9 percent, to end the session at $99.83 a barrel on the London- based ICE Futures Europe exchange. 
At MCX, Crude oil February contract declined from Rs.4125 to Rs.4088, down by 0.89 per cent after hitting a high of 4247 whereas the March contract dropped 0.30 per cent to Rs.4233 after hitting a high of 4363. 
Base Metals 
Copper continued uptrend in global market on concern that the global economic recovery will boost consumption of the metal used in cars, homes and appliances while mining companies struggle to increase output. The global supply deficit will reach 822,000 metric tons in 2011, more than double last year’s shortfall also added the gain. 
Copper futures for March delivery rose 3.5 cents, or 0.8 percent, to close at $4.5795 a pound on the Comex in New York. The metal is up 4.7 percent this week. 
Copper for three-month delivery added $120, or 1.2 percent, to $10,050 a ton ($4.56 a pound) on the London Metal Exchange. 
Also in London, tin climbed 2.1 percent to $31,200 a ton after reaching a record $31,300. Aluminum, lead, nickel and zinc rose. 
At MCX, Copper February contract rose from Rs 442.30 to Rs 464.50 levels, higher by 5.01%. 
Major Headlines 
Food inflation climbs 17.05% on dearer fruits, vegetables 
Adding to the Government's woes, food inflation shot up for the second straight week, driven mainly by vegetables, fruits, milk products and poultry items, while fuel inflation also surged marginally. 
World food prices seen at record high in January 
Surging food prices are on Thursday expected to push the United Nations' food price index to a record high in January for a second straight month, further above the levels which prompted food riots in 2007/2008. 
NCDEX to re-launch rubber futures 
The National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange (NCDEX) plans to re-launch rubber futures contract (Rubber RSS 4) on Monday. 
India becomes hot destination for global pepper trade 
India is now becoming the most attractive destination for global black pepper trade. This is mainly due to the shortage of the spice in other leading producing countries. This market condition is expected to remain for the next five-six weeks, according to leading exporters here. 
Govt mulling 5% interest for loans against warehouse receipts 
The Union Finance Ministry is examining a proposal for bringing down borrowing costs farmers against warehouse receipts from the current level of 11 per cent to five per cent. 
FMC steps up futures' monitoring 
The Forward Markets Commission (FMC) has stepped up its surveillance of the futures market while awaiting punitive powers through the amendments tabled to Forward Contracts (Regulation) Act.

(Source: http://www.commodityonline.com/news/Commodity-TrendsSoybean-Pepper-Chana-prices-move-up-36245-2-1.html)